Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio - Part 2


Someone by the nickname of "Koopa" left an interesting comment on my previous post (Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio).

To ensure a reasonable spread of unit holders, the Joint Bookrunners and the Joint Underwriters, in consultation with the Trustee Manager, have decided to... allocate 66% of the units available for IPO to... 8.5% of the (successful) applicants with the deepest pockets.
--Koopa

I chuckled at the part on the "reasonable spread of unit holders". The numbers were quite interesting and I decided to do a breakdown to verify Koopa's calculations. The break down is as follows:


Range of units applied for ('000s) balloting ratio no. of successful applicants no. of applicants units alloted per successful appplicant total units alloted
1 0.06 42 700 1 42
2 to 9 0.08 152 1900 1 152
10 to 49 0.1 441 4410 6 2646
50 to 99 0.12 160 1333 36 5760
100 to 499 0.14 187 1336 80 14960
500 to 999 0.66 60 91 374 22440
1000 and above 0.72 32 44 750 24000
1074 9814 70000

% of units allocated in the last 2 bands:
(22440 + 24000)/70000 = 66.3%

% of unit holders in last 2 bands against no. of successful applicants:
(60+32)/1074 = 8.57%

Koopa's calculations were accurate. His/her sarcasm on the "reasonable spread of unit holders"was simply brilliant.

I shall provide another calculation to add on to the above.
% of unit holders in last 2 bands against no. of ALL applicants:
(60+32) / 9814 = 0.937%

Less than 1% of all applicants got allocated 66% of the APTT units in the public offer!!


Other thoughts
It seems this balloting ratio turns out to be bad for APTT. When APTT opened today at 2pm, the opening price was $1. It briefly went up to $1.005 for a while and then came tumbling down. At the end of the day, it closed at $0.92 (5c below the IPO price).

I think there are a couple of reasons that could have caused this
1) The higher bands were allocated much more units than they expected. Some of them may have started selling off a large part of their allocated units and triggered other investors to follow suit.

2) There is a sudden fear of rising interest rates. Many REITs and business trusts suffered a 3-6% drop today as well.

In a way, many of us were glad that we were not allocated any units from the IPO. For my APTT units allocated from my MIIF dividend, I will continue to hold them for a while for now.



Related Post:
Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio

The Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio are out:

The balloting ratios are very disappointing. A few points to note as follows:
1) Some bands are merged as a single band. For example, for most IPO, we will see a 10-19 and 20-49 band. But in this IPO, they are merged as a 10-49 band

2) The balloting ratio jumped significantly from the 100-499 band to the 500-999 band. That is a jump from 14% chance to 66% chance!

3) The number of units allocated are also very high on the higher bands. We seldom see a 75% allocated units in the highest band. It seems that this IPO is favoring the richer folks out there.

For me, I was not allocated any units for this IPO. However, I will be allocated some units from my MIIF as dividends. Good luck to those holding APTT units!

Friday, May 24, 2013

Soilbuild IPO balloting ratio

IPO balloting ratios for Soilbuild is out as follows:



I did not apply for this IPO. The public offer of 2000 lots was just too small. The chances of getting allotted some units is likely to be low. In addition to this, if one is only allotted 1 or 2 lots, he will have problems selling. The IPO price was a $0.25. Selling 1 lot will incur a commission of about 10%!

The balloting results showed that there was only a 8-16% chance of being allotted units. if you applied for less than 50 lots and are allotted units, you will only be allotted 1 lot. Unless the opening price of soilbuild opens high, some share holders may find themselves stuck with their allotted shares.


Sunday, May 19, 2013

Asian Pay TV Trust IPO part 2

The pricing for the IPO has been finalized to be $0.97. With this price, the yields work out to be as follows:


In this yield hungry environment, we could see APTT rising on the first day. A recent example was the Croesus Retail Trust (CRT). CRT IPOed at a price of $0.93 for a projected yield of 7.96%. On the 1st day of listing, it closed at $1.145. This is an 23% increase! At this price, it also translate to a yield of 6.46%.

If we were to see a similar yield compression for APTT,
a yield of 7% will result in a price of $1.04 (up 7.2% from IPO price)
a yield of 6.5% will result in a price of $1.12 (up 15.5% from IPO price)

The IPO will close on 27th May 2013 at 12pm. It will then list on 29th May 2013 2pm.
Good luck to those who are applying!


Related post:
Asian Pay TV Trust IPO
APTT offering price and MIIF APTT Units

Saturday, May 18, 2013

APTT offering price and MIIF APTT Units

APTT IPO 's price has been fixed at $0.97.
The number of units for MIIF APTT units has been fixed at 525,866,849. Unit holders of MIIF (as of 6 May) could either choose to receive dividends in the form of Asian Pay TV Trust (APTT) units or receive the dividend in cash. The trust will be listed on 29th May.

The calculations for the number of APTT units or cash dividend as as follows:

Units:
APTT units = (S * U) / I  (rounded down to nearest whole number)

S is the number of Shares held by the Shareholder as at the Record Date for which such Notice of Cash Election relates;
U is the number of MIIF APTT Units which equates to 525,866,849 Units;
I is the total issued Shares of MIIF as at Record Date of 1,149,857,154

If you own 1000 MIIF units, you are entitled to:
1000 * 525866849 / 1149857154
= 457.33
= 457 units

If you own 1000 MIIF units, you are entitled to:
4573 units


Cash:
If you are opting for cash, simply calculate the number of entitled APTT units and multiply by the APTT IPO price ($0.97)

If you own 1000 MIIF units, you are entitled to:
457 * $0.97 = $443.29

 If you own 10000 MIIF units, you are entitled to:
4573 * 0.97 = $4435.81



Other notes:
The default option is to receive in APTT units. If you would like to receive the dividend in cash, you need to mail back the notice of cash election.

For unit holders who are interested to apply for the APTT IPO, I would suggest to go for the units option as you are guaranteed the APTT units. If the total units received is not too little for your liking, you could apply additonal units via the IPO.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Asian Pay TV Trust IPO

Asian Pay TV Trust IPO is set to complete in the next few weeks. Details are as follows

Indicative timetable
Other related dates relating to MIIF to note:
Despatch of election form in relation to cash election: 13 May 2013
Expected deadline of cash election: 21st May 2013.
Expected date of crediting APTT units for MIIF unit holders who opt for units: 28 May 2013


Price
offering price of a maximum of $1.
The price will be confirmed on 16th May.

Distributions

Distributions to Unitholders on a semi-annual basis, with the amount calculated as at 30 June and 31 December each year for the six-month period ending on each of the said dates. However, the Trust’s first distribution period will be for the period from the Listing Date to 30 June 2013. The first distribution payment, which will be paid on or before 8 October 2013,

Yield


Gearing 
(based on page A-4 of preliminary prospectus)
1,1103,33 / 2,494,190 = 44.52%

Net asset:
$1,383,857,000

Total units including sponsor and cornerstone investors
1,436,800,000

NAV
$1,383,857,000/1,436,800,000 = $0.96

** to recompute after price is confirmed

Cornerstone investors:
  • Asian Century Quest Capital LLC
  • Capital Research and Management Company
  • Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited
  • Indus Capital Partners, LLC
  • Lion Global Investors Limited
  • Signature Global Advisors
  • OZ Master Fund, Ltd., Goldman Sachs Profit Sharing Master Trust, Gordel Capital Limited,
    Ozea, L.P., OZ Equity Long-Short Master Fund, Ltd., and OZ Asia Master Fund, Ltd. (the “OZ
    Funds”)
  • Quantum Partners LP
  • Neuberger Berman LLC
Trust structure

Pros
  • High yield
  • Strong cornerstone investors (e.g. Quantum Vehicle, the investing vehicle of the Soros family;)
  • TBC Group is Taiwan’s third-largest cable TV operator. This allows room for growth: the two largest cable TV providers in Taiwan, CNS and Kbro, which as at 31 December 2012, held 26.0% and 23.0% of Taiwan’s paying cable TV market share, respectively, face more stringent growth limitations than the TBC Group as their subscriber base is nearing the one-third national cable TV subscriber cap imposed by Article 21 of the CRTA. The TBC Group is
    below this cap and is well positioned to acquire independent system operators with the capacity to take on an additional 911,659 Cable TV subscribers, which would represent up to 121.3% increase over its existing Basic Cable TV subscriber base.

Cons
  • Hard to gauge value of pay tv trust as there isn't much of such business trusts available
  • Currency risks (TWD weakening, SGD strengthening)
  • Unauthorized usage of pay TV services and piracy

Other thoughts
As a unit holder for MIIF, I am likely to opt for APTT units. In additon to this, I will apply for the IPO as well. I shall wait for the price determination to complete before deciding.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Croesus Retail Trust IPO: balloting ratio

The balloting ratios for Croesus Retail Trust IPO are out:
It seems somewhat weird that the lower bands got a higher balloting ratio than the higher bands. The Croesus Retail Trust will list tomorrow (10th May 2013) at 2pm. Good luck to those who were successful.


Related Posts:
How to read an IPO balloting ratio table
Croesus Retail Trust IPO

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

CPF minimum sum for Jul 2013 and projections for 30 years


This post contains the predicted CPF minimum sum which I computed in May 2013.

On May 2014, I did a small revamp to this post as I find it useful to compare my predicted values to the actual values. From 2014 onwards, I will add in the actual inflation rate for the previous year and actual announced minimum sum value in the 2 new columns.

Notes:
1) Every year, the CPF minimum sum is increased to account for inflation.
 2) CPF has set a 120k (in 2003 dollars to hit) by 2015. Before 2015, the CPF minimum sum will also increase by a certain ratio to account for this target

As the CPF minimum sum is largely dependent on the inflation, any changes to inflation rate will affect the CPF minimum sum which will in turn affect our plans for retirement. This projection serves to give us a rough idea of the CPF minimum sum when we retire so that we can better plan for our retirement.

The projected CPF minimum sum are as follows:
 
CPF Min sum for inflation rate Actual
Year 3% 4% 5% Actual inflation Actual min sum
2014 155,800 157,300 158,800 2.4% 155,000
2015 163,900 167,100 170,300 1.0% 161,000
2016 168,800 173,800 178,800
2017 173,900 180,800 187,700
2018 179,100 188,000 197,100
2019 184,500 195,500 207,000
2020 190,000 203,300 217,400
2021 195,700 211,400 228,300
2022 201,600 219,900 239,700
2023 207,600 228,700 251,700
2024 213,800 237,800 264,300
2025 220,200 247,300 277,500
2026 226,800 257,200 291,400
2027 233,600 267,500 306,000
2028 240,600 278,200 321,300
2029 247,800 289,300 337,400
2030 255,200 300,900 354,300
2031 262,900 312,900 372,000
2032 270,800 325,400 390,600
2033 278,900 338,400 410,100
2034 287,300 351,900 430,600
2035 295,900 366,000 452,100
2036 304,800 380,600 474,700
2037 313,900 395,800 498,400
2038 323,300 411,600 523,300
2039 333,000 428,100 549,500
2040 343,000 445,200 577,000
2041 353,300 463,000 605,900
2042 363,900 481,500 636,200
2043 374,800 500,800 668,000

** each year's value rounded to nearest $100



My other thoughts:
Depending on the inflation rate for the next 30 years, the CPF minimum sum can end up very differently. As seen from the figures above, it works out to a difference of almost 300k! We should plan for our retirement using a higher inflation rate to allow more buffer for ourselves. If inflation rates remain at a level that is higher than the 2.5% and 4% interest rates, Singaporeans are likely to find themselves drifting further and further away from the specified CPF minimum sum.

I would suggest Singaporeans to plan for their own retirements separately and not rely on the the CPF scheme alone for your retirement needs. 

I will try to come up with a more accurate CPF minimum sum estimate for subsequent years when the inflation rates for 2013 are announced. Until then, the above estimates should serve as a good estimate for you.

Other posts relating to CPF minimum sum can be found here:
CPF min sum related posts







Wednesday, May 1, 2013

REIT Ranking - Apr 2013

REIT ranking for Apr 2013 is as follows:


REIT
Mkt
Yield
NAV
Gearing
P/B
Total
P/B score
Gearing score
Yield score
SaizenREIT
$0.200
6.600%
$0.270
32.00%
0.741
5
3
1
1
LippoMalls
$0.525
5.638%
$0.562
24.50%
0.934
5
2
2
1
Far East HTrust
$1.130
5.358%
$0.970
29.20%
1.165
4
1
2
1
Fortune Reit HK$
$7.200
4.592%
$8.810
23.40%
0.817
4
2
2
0
AscendasHT
$1.020
7.180%
$0.820
35.30%
1.244
3
0
1
2
Sabana REIT
$1.365
7.158%
$1.060
37.70%
1.288
3
0
1
2
CACHE
$1.415
6.403%
$0.960
29.20%
1.474
3
0
2
1
AscottREIT
$1.405
6.231%
$1.320
36.00%
1.064
3
1
1
1
CapitaRChina
$1.685
5.561%
$1.310
25.40%
1.286
3
0
2
1
CDL Htrust
$2.000
5.455%
$1.590
28.30%
1.258
3
0
2
1
Frasers Comm
$1.560
5.173%
$1.500
31.70%
1.040
3
1
1
1
SuntecReit
$1.945
4.646%
$2.035
36.10%
0.956
3
2
1
0
AIMSAMPI Reit
$1.820
6.242%
$1.476
34.00%
1.233
2
0
1
1
MapletreeInd
$1.570
6.038%
$1.100
34.80%
1.427
2
0
1
1
Cambridge
$0.855
5.854%
$0.655
35.30%
1.305
2
0
1
1
Kep REIT
$1.510
5.291%
$1.290
43.30%
1.171
2
1
0
1
MapletreeLog
$1.310
5.282%
$0.900
34.10%
1.456
2
0
1
1
Ascendasreit
$2.750
4.996%
$1.913
28.30%
1.438
2
0
2
0
Starhill Gbl
$0.965
4.964%
$0.960
30.50%
1.005
2
1
1
0
First REIT
$1.435
4.920%
$0.836
27.10%
1.717
2
0
2
0
CapitaComm
$1.710
4.649%
$1.620
30.40%
1.056
2
1
1
0
FrasersCT
$2.250
4.800%
$1.540
30.50%
1.461
1
0
1
0
CapitaMall
$2.320
4.302%
$1.640
35.20%
1.415
1
0
1
0
PLife REIT
$2.670
4.030%
$1.550
32.90%
1.723
1
0
1
0
MapletreeCom
$1.465
4.743%
$1.060
40.90%
1.382
0
0
0
0
MapletreeGCC
$1.115
4.700%
$0.910
43.00%
1.225
0
0
0
0


For how the scores are being calculated:
Reit Rankings - Mad Stranger's scoring system


Disclaimers:
It doesn't mean that if you see a high score for a particular REIT, you rush in to buy. The score system only serves as an indicator on how the REIT is with respect to its yield, P/B and gearing. The ranking is also heavily dependent on the accuracy of the data shown on reitdata.com , investors are advised to do your own cross checking. It is always prudent to do your own research before making any buys or sells.