Soilbuild IPO balloting ratio

Soilbuild IPO balloting ratio is out:

The balloting ratios s quite weird. The chances decreases as the banding increases and then rises as it moves to the higher bands. On the highest band, investors had a 80% chance to be allocated units. Again, we see so many millionaires on this banding.

 I did not apply for this IPO. Soilbuild opens on 16 August 2013 at 2pm Good luck to all who have gotten their units!

OUE Hospitality trust IPO balloting ratio

IPO balloting ratio for OUE hospitality trust are as follows:

SPH Reit IPO balloting ratio

There were 71,190 valid applications for the 83,982,000 Units available to the public for subscription. In total, these applicants applied for approximately 2.1 billion Units. Based on the aforesaid, the Public Offer was approximately 25 times subscribed.

The balloting results are out as follows:

As usual, I like to look at the bottom most band where the millionaires are. There are 63 successful applicants on this band. This works out to 158 millionaires who applied for the IPO!

SPH REIT vs OUE hospitality trust

The IPO for SPH reit and OUE hospitality are both scheduled for IPO next week. I have summarized some key points for the 2 IPOs for easy reference:

	SPH REIT	OUE Hospitality trust
Price	$0.85- $0.90	$0.88 to $0.90
Tentative timetable	Institutional book building: 10-16 July Pricing and allocation: 17 July Public offer: 17-22 July (12pm) Listing: 24 July	Bookbuilding: 10 Jul - 17 Jul Public offer: 18 Jul - 23 Jul Listing: 25 Jul
Initial portfolio	Paragon Mall Clementi Mall (99 year lease)	Mandarin Orchard Mandarin Gallery (43 year lease remaining)
Property type	Retail	Hospitality
Yield	2H FY2013 Forecast: 5.58 - 5.79%	annualised yield from listing date: 7.20 - 7.36%
Future pipeline	Seletar mall	Acquisition pipeline through the Sponsor ROFR Properties Crowne Plaza Changi Airport Meritus Mandarin Haikou (China) Meritus Shantou (China)
Cornerstone investor	Great Eastern Life Assurance Company Hong Leong Asset Management Bhd Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company Newton INvestment Management Norges Bank	Credit Suisse AG Goldhill Mr Gordon Tang Lucille Holdings P L Splendid Asia Macro Fund
Other notes	SPH still retains a 70% interest in the SPH REIT	This is a stapled security of OUE hospitality  REIT and OUE hospitality business trust

Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio - Part 2

Someone by the nickname of "Koopa" left an interesting comment on my previous post (Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio).

To ensure a reasonable spread of unit holders, the Joint Bookrunners and the Joint Underwriters, in consultation with the Trustee Manager, have decided to... allocate 66% of the units available for IPO to... 8.5% of the (successful) applicants with the deepest pockets.
--Koopa

I chuckled at the part on the "reasonable spread of unit holders". The numbers were quite interesting and I decided to do a breakdown to verify Koopa's calculations. The break down is as follows:

Range of units applied for ('000s)	balloting ratio	no. of successful applicants	no. of applicants	units alloted per successful appplicant	total units alloted
1	0.06	42	700	1	42
2 to 9	0.08	152	1900	1	152
10 to 49	0.1	441	4410	6	2646
50 to 99	0.12	160	1333	36	5760
100 to 499	0.14	187	1336	80	14960
500 to 999	0.66	60	91	374	22440
1000 and above	0.72	32	44	750	24000
		1074	9814		70000

% of units allocated in the last 2 bands:
(22440 + 24000)/70000 = 66.3%

% of unit holders in last 2 bands against no. of successful applicants:
(60+32)/1074 = 8.57%

Koopa's calculations were accurate. His/her sarcasm on the "reasonable spread of unit holders"was simply brilliant.

I shall provide another calculation to add on to the above.
% of unit holders in last 2 bands against no. of ALL applicants:
(60+32) / 9814 = 0.937%

Less than 1% of all applicants got allocated 66% of the APTT units in the public offer!!


Other thoughts
It seems this balloting ratio turns out to be bad for APTT. When APTT opened today at 2pm, the opening price was $1. It briefly went up to $1.005 for a while and then came tumbling down. At the end of the day, it closed at $0.92 (5c below the IPO price).

I think there are a couple of reasons that could have caused this
1) The higher bands were allocated much more units than they expected. Some of them may have started selling off a large part of their allocated units and triggered other investors to follow suit.

2) There is a sudden fear of rising interest rates. Many REITs and business trusts suffered a 3-6% drop today as well.

In a way, many of us were glad that we were not allocated any units from the IPO. For my APTT units allocated from my MIIF dividend, I will continue to hold them for a while for now.



Related Post:
Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio

Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio

The Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) IPO balloting ratio are out:

The balloting ratios are very disappointing. A few points to note as follows:
1) Some bands are merged as a single band. For example, for most IPO, we will see a 10-19 and 20-49 band. But in this IPO, they are merged as a 10-49 band

2) The balloting ratio jumped significantly from the 100-499 band to the 500-999 band. That is a jump from 14% chance to 66% chance!

3) The number of units allocated are also very high on the higher bands. We seldom see a 75% allocated units in the highest band. It seems that this IPO is favoring the richer folks out there.

For me, I was not allocated any units for this IPO. However, I will be allocated some units from my MIIF as dividends. Good luck to those holding APTT units!

Soilbuild IPO balloting ratio

IPO balloting ratios for Soilbuild is out as follows:

I did not apply for this IPO. The public offer of 2000 lots was just too small. The chances of getting allotted some units is likely to be low. In addition to this, if one is only allotted 1 or 2 lots, he will have problems selling. The IPO price was a $0.25. Selling 1 lot will incur a commission of about 10%!

The balloting results showed that there was only a 8-16% chance of being allotted units. if you applied for less than 50 lots and are allotted units, you will only be allotted 1 lot. Unless the opening price of soilbuild opens high, some share holders may find themselves stuck with their allotted shares.

Asian Pay TV Trust IPO part 2

The pricing for the IPO has been finalized to be $0.97. With this price, the yields work out to be as follows:

In this yield hungry environment, we could see APTT rising on the first day. A recent example was the Croesus Retail Trust (CRT). CRT IPOed at a price of $0.93 for a projected yield of 7.96%. On the 1st day of listing, it closed at $1.145. This is an 23% increase! At this price, it also translate to a yield of 6.46%.

If we were to see a similar yield compression for APTT,
a yield of 7% will result in a price of $1.04 (up 7.2% from IPO price)
a yield of 6.5% will result in a price of $1.12 (up 15.5% from IPO price)

The IPO will close on 27th May 2013 at 12pm. It will then list on 29th May 2013 2pm.
Good luck to those who are applying!


Related post:
Asian Pay TV Trust IPO
APTT offering price and MIIF APTT Units

Asian Pay TV Trust IPO

Asian Pay TV Trust IPO is set to complete in the next few weeks. Details are as follows

Indicative timetable

Other related dates relating to MIIF to note:
Despatch of election form in relation to cash election: 13 May 2013
Expected deadline of cash election: 21st May 2013.
Expected date of crediting APTT units for MIIF unit holders who opt for units: 28 May 2013


Price
offering price of a maximum of $1.
The price will be confirmed on 16th May.

Distributions

Distributions to Unitholders on a semi-annual basis, with the amount calculated as at 30 June and 31 December each year for the six-month period ending on each of the said dates. However, the Trust’s first distribution period will be for the period from the Listing Date to 30 June 2013. The first distribution payment, which will be paid on or before 8 October 2013,

Yield

Gearing 
(based on page A-4 of preliminary prospectus)
1,1103,33 / 2,494,190 = 44.52%

Net asset:
$1,383,857,000

Total units including sponsor and cornerstone investors
1,436,800,000

NAV
$1,383,857,000/1,436,800,000 = $0.96

** to recompute after price is confirmed

Cornerstone investors:

• Asian Century Quest Capital LLC
• Capital Research and Management Company
• Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited
• Indus Capital Partners, LLC
• Lion Global Investors Limited
• Signature Global Advisors
• OZ Master Fund, Ltd., Goldman Sachs Profit Sharing Master Trust, Gordel Capital Limited,
  Ozea, L.P., OZ Equity Long-Short Master Fund, Ltd., and OZ Asia Master Fund, Ltd. (the “OZ
  Funds”)
• Quantum Partners LP
• Neuberger Berman LLC

Trust structure

 

Pros

• High yield
• Strong cornerstone investors (e.g. Quantum Vehicle, the investing vehicle of the Soros family;)
• TBC Group is Taiwan’s third-largest cable TV operator. This allows room for growth: the two largest cable TV providers in Taiwan, CNS and Kbro, which as at 31 December 2012, held 26.0% and 23.0% of Taiwan’s paying cable TV market share, respectively, face more stringent growth limitations than the TBC Group as their subscriber base is nearing the one-third national cable TV subscriber cap imposed by Article 21 of the CRTA. The TBC Group is
  below this cap and is well positioned to acquire independent system operators with the capacity to take on an additional 911,659 Cable TV subscribers, which would represent up to 121.3% increase over its existing Basic Cable TV subscriber base.

Cons

• Hard to gauge value of pay tv trust as there isn't much of such business trusts available
• Currency risks (TWD weakening, SGD strengthening)
• Unauthorized usage of pay TV services and piracy

Other thoughts
As a unit holder for MIIF, I am likely to opt for APTT units. In additon to this, I will apply for the IPO as well. I shall wait for the price determination to complete before deciding.

Croesus Retail Trust IPO: balloting ratio

The balloting ratios for Croesus Retail Trust IPO are out:

It seems somewhat weird that the lower bands got a higher balloting ratio than the higher bands. The Croesus Retail Trust will list tomorrow (10th May 2013) at 2pm. Good luck to those who were successful.


Related Posts:
How to read an IPO balloting ratio table
Croesus Retail Trust IPO

Croesus Retail Trust IPO

Croesus Retail Trust, a Japanese real estate investment trust, is aiming to raise about S$394 million through an initial public offering in Singapore this year.

Source:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/croesus-retail-trust-to-raise-about-s-39/652740.html

Some details include:
Preliminary prospectus available here:
http://masnet.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrprosp.nsf/e25d3309aa11eacd48256f64000f86d1/F3B2428D0D7AAF7048257B58000A36ED/$File/CRT%20Preliminary%20Prospectus.pdf

indicative price: $0.93

Offering: 208,815,000 and 248,015,000 Units
Number of units in public offer: 21,505,000 Units
[page 31 of preliminary prospectus]

yield forecast: $0.074,    yield: 7.96% for 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014
                         $0.0749, yield: 8.05% for 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2015
[page 10 of preliminary prospectus]
I personally don't like the way they round to the nearest 1 decimal place and say 8 and 8.1% yield.

Gearing:   $27,419,096 / $57,685,819 = 0.4753 or 47.5%  [page 41 of preliminary prospectus]

Properties and projected income:

Corner stone investors:
[page 72-74 of preliminary prospectus]

• Asdew Acquisitions Pte Ltd
• Citadel Asset Management
• D.E. Shaw Valence International, Inc.
• Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited
• G.K. Goh Strategic Holdings Pte Ltd
• Hong Leong Asset Management
• Hwang Investment Management Berhad
• JF Asset Management Limited
• JABCAP Multi Strategy Master Fund Limited
• Myriad Asset Management Limited
• Target Asset Management Pte Ltd

Indicative timetable:
[page 36 of preliminary prospectus]

Other notes:
This is not a REIT and the trust do not need to maintain above 90% distributions as payout. See differences between REIT and trust for more info:
Differences between reits and trusts

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Balloting Ratio

The balloting ratios for mapletree greater China commercial trust IPO are out as follows:

 

It was also mentioned that the public offer for this IPO is about 8.9 times oversubscribed.

As usual, the higher the bands, the greater the chance of being allocated the units. On the lowest level, there is a 52% chance of getting as compared to the highest level of a 68% chance. In general, there is a 52%-68% chance of being allocated some units.

For the lower bands, they are some what similar to Maple commercial IPO about 1-2 years ago.

The lowest band (1-9 lots) were allocated 1 lot.

10-19 lots band was allocated 3 lots

20-49 lots band was allocated 6 lots

50-99 lots band was allocated 12 lots.

On higher bands, there is a significant reduction in the lots allocated. Also the chances of getting for this IPO is somewhat lower.

On the millionaire band (more than 1000 lots), there are 135 successful applicants. There are so many millionaires out there that can afford to apply more than 1000 lots in Singapore.

Based on the response for this IPO, I would think that Maple greater china commercial trust will open between a price of $0.95 to $1.00 tomorrow at 2pm. Good luck to all who are allocated units. =)

Related Posts:

How to read an IPO balloting ratio table

mapletree greater china commercial trust IPO

mapletree greater china commercial trust IPO part 2

mapletree greater china commercial trust IPO part 2

IPO dates as follows:

mapletree greater china commercial trust IPO

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust plans to offer about 1.7 billion shares in the REIT at 88 Singapore cents to 93 Singapore cents

Mapletree investments pte is targeting to raise about 1.6 billion SGD from this IPO.

Mapletree has shown a pretty good track record. Mapletree Commercial Trust, which raised $754 million in April 2011, and Mapletree Industrial Trust, which completed a $714 million IPO in October 2010, are both up about 50 percent from their offer prices.

The yield is expected to be 5.6% to 6% in the first financial year (1 Apr 2013 to 31 Mar 2014). The distribution yield is expected to grow by approximately 8.6% to a distribution yield of 6.1% to 6.5% in the second full financial year from 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2015

Details on the actual dates should be released soon.

Preliminary prospectus:
http://masnet.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrprosp.nsf/e4607bcf096b71f748256b660010c4a4/E1E2DBB9E39E1C5248257B1300137AE3/%24File/1.%20MGCCT%20Prelim%20Prosp%20(15%20Feb%202013).pdf

Courts Asia IPO balloting ratio

For those who are interested, the balloting ratio for Courts Asia IPO are as follows:

The IPO was still quite well subscribed. A usual, there is a group of rich investors who applied for more than 1000 lots.

Side Note:
I did not apply for this IPO. The dividend yield was somewhat low (~2 to 3% per year). A previous listing of Courts Singapore was subsequently delisted a few years ago. This is likely to cause a shadow on some investors.


Other info:
IPO price: $0.77
Listing date: 15 Oct 2012

How to read an IPO balloting ratio table

In several of my posts on the recent IPOs, I listed the IPO balloting ratio table. Some people might not understand what the table actually means. I will share here on what each column actually means.

Using the recent Ascendas hospitality trust as an example,

Range of stapled securities/shares applied per ('000)

The actual balloting occurs in "bands". For example, if you applied for 15 lots. You will be balloting against other investors who applied between 10 to 19 lots.

Balloting ratio

This refers to the chance of getting successful allocation. For example, for the 10 to 19 lots band, the chances of successful allocation is 66% (33/50).

No. of stapled securities/shares allocated per successful applicant

This refers to how many shares are allocated if one is successful. Being allocated shares/units does not mean you are allocated the full amount which you applied for. In the example above , if you are the 66% in the 10 to 19 lots band, you will be allocated 3 lots only.

Percentage of total number of stapled securities/shares available under the public offer

The number here is of little significance to the individual investors. It shows the percentage of total units allocated across each of the bands. It provides a general view on how the allocation is like across the different bands. In the example above, we can see more than one quarter of the total units are taken up by the 100 to 199 lots band.

Number of successful applicants

This refers to the number of successful applicants on the same band. If you use this number with the balloting ratio, you can figure out how many investors balloted for the band.

_______________________________________________________________________

How the above information can help you.

1) There is no need to apply or too many units.

The typical banding is quite consistent among the different IPOs. Instead of applying for a 15 lots in an IPO, you can consider applying for 10 or 11 lots since you will still fall into the same band.

2) Applying for more than what you actually intend to keep

In a "hot" IPO, you will only be allocated a small percentage of what you applied for as seen in the example above. Since the application fee is flat, you can want to apply for more if you have the additional cash on hand.

However, do note that this can go against you if the response for the IPO turns out to be poor. For example, in the Genting perpetual security IPO, the allocation ratios were as follows:

 

If you had applied for 10 lots thinking that you will only be allocated 3-5 lots, you will be surprised to be allocated a full 10 lots in this IPO.

_______________________________________________________________________

With the understanding of how IPO allocation works, investors can better decide on the number of shares they would like to apply in future IPOs.