Sunday, January 27, 2013

CPF minimum sum for Jul 2013 [Predicted]

The inflation rate for Singapore 2012 is calculated to be 4.6%

The CPF minimum sum is targetted to reach $120k (in 2003 dollars) by Jul 2015. In Jul 2012, the minimum sum has hit 113k (in 2003 dollars) which is 139k. 

Based on this, how much will the minimum sum be Jul 2013?
This will depend on the target (in 2003 dollars) that is set for Jul 2013. With 7k (in 2003 dollars) to reach in 3 years, we should expect of a target between 115k to 116k (in 2003 dollars)

Assuming, a target of 115k (in 2003 dollars), the minimum sum should work out to be:
115k / 113k * 139k * 1.046 = 147967 = 148000 (rounded)

Assuming, a target of 115.5k (in 2003 dollars), the minimum sum should work out to be:
115.5k / 113k * 139k * 1.046 = 148611 = 148600 (rounded)

Assuming, a target of 116k (in 2003 dollars), the minimum sum should work out to be:
116k / 113k * 139k * 1.046 = 149254 = 149300 (rounded)

** Rounding to nearest $100


With the above calculations, I would expect the minimum sum to be increased to a value between 148000 to 149500. The 149500 will be hit if the 116k (in 2003 dollars) target is set and CPF board round the amount to the nearest $500. 

If that happens, we will see an increase in CPF minimum sum of $10500. How many Singaporeans have even contributed this amount to the CPF OA and SA? With an inflation rate higher than the CPF-OA and SA interest of 2.5 and 4% respectively, many Singaporeans will find themselves further from the CPF minimum sum as higher targets are being set.

The actual figures will be released around end June. We shall see if my estimates are accurate then.

Dutyfree International - daily share buy back - Part 4

Dutyfree seems to have slowed down its share buy back significantly. Last week, there was only one daily share buy back done on 22nd Jan for 200k shares. Price done was 0.395.

Related Post:
Dutyfree International - daily share buy back - Part 3
Dutyfree International - daily share buy back - Part 2
Dutyfree International - daily share buy back

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Sabana REIT 4Q 2012

Sabana REIT has just announced its results for 4Q2012. A distribution of 2.41c is declared for the period 1 Oct 2012 to 31 Dec 2012. This is higher than the previous quarter of 2.34c. On the following day after the results, Sabana REIT increased by 3c, closing at 1.185.



The NAV is currently about 1.07. The gearing is currently 37.6% which makes it difficult to acquire new properties without a private placement or rights issue.

Leases expiring
44.7% (based on gross revenue) of the leases will be expiring this year. This could work as a double-edged sword. If leases are renewed with higher rents, we could see higher dpu. However, it leases are not renewed and Sabana is unable to find a new tenant, the dpu will definitely fall.

High Yield
Sabana REIT has a yield of about 8%, one of the highest yield among its S-REITs peers. Hopefully, with higher rentals after the lease renewal, we will see the DPU being increased again.

Dutyfree International - daily share buy back - Part 3


The daily share buy back continues. A total of another 4.4M shares has been bought back. This week, Dutyfree dropped after the results were announced on 14 Jan 2013 and hit a low of 0.365 before closing at 0.41 on Friday. Nevertheless, we see an increased in volume of share buy back. This week's share buy back is twice of last week's. Something is definitely brewing.

The breakdown is as follows:
Date of purchase no. of shares average price
18/01/2013 50,000 0.39
17/01/2013 300,000 0.3925
16/01/2013 700,000 0.39429
15/01/2013 2,427,000 0.39378
14/01/2013 980,000 0.41561
TOTAL 4,457,000


Related Posts:
Dutyfree International - daily share buy back - Part 2
Dutyfree International - daily share buy back

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Dutyfree International - daily share buy back - Part 2

Earlier I posted about the daily share buy back for duty free.
Dutyfree International - daily share buy back

The daily share buy back continues. A total of another 2.2M shares has been bought back. This week, it hit a high of 0.435 and closed at 0.42 on Friday.

The breakdown is as follows:
Date of purchase no. of shares average price
11/01/2013 580,000 0.4269
10/01/2013 600,000 0.42692
09/01/2013 350,000 0.42286
08/01/2013 200,000 0.415
07/01/2013 500,000 0.407
TOTAL 2,230,000

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Dutyfree International - daily share buy back


Dutyfree International has been doing share buy back for the past month, and its traded price has been increasing steadily over the same period of time.


Chart for past 1 year:
Increasing price with increasing volume.


Share buy back breakdown:
Date of purchase no. of shares average price TOTAL VALUE
04/01/2013 850,000 0.40471 344003.5
03/01/2013 350,000 0.39714 138999
02/01/2013 550,000 0.39 214500
28/12/2012 700,000 0.38964 272748
27/12/2012 500,000 0.38748 193740
26/12/2012 462,000 0.38 175560
21/12/2012 220,000 0.375 82500
19/12/2012 100,000 0.35 35000
18/12/2012 200,000 0.35 70000
14/12/2012 20,000 0.33 6600
13/12/2012 156,000 0.32821 51200.76
12/12/2012 150,000 0.325 48750
TOTAL 4,258,000 0.383655 1633601.26

Based on the current trends, there seem to be an increasing share buy back price. The increase in volume is due to the daily share buy backs. On last Friday, there was a buy back of 850k shares, which is higher than its typical daily share buy back. The volume also represent more than 50% of the traded volume (1.4M) on that day.

 There seems to be some upside on this. I have entered a small position at 0.405 in this counter on Friday earlier.

Other notes:
Dividend history:
2012:
0.01 + 0.01 + 0.0025 = 0.0225
2011:
0.0025 + 0.0075 = 0.01
no dividend in earlier years from 2004-2012.

If DutyFree can maintain its dividend of 0.0225, it is still a decent 5.55% based on its last done price of 0.405.