Saturday, January 28, 2012

CPF minimum sum for Jul 2012 [predicted]

In one of my earlier posts, I projected the CPF minimum sum to be around 139k for Jul 2012.
Related post: What if CPF minimum sum continues to increase at its current rate

A few days ago, the inflation figures for 2011 were announced. For 2011, inflation averaged to be around 5.2% [http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1178968/1/.html]

In 2011, we have seen rising costs over many areas. With this released inflation figures, I would think the CPF minimum sum for July 2012 will be higher than what I had projected earlier. I would like to make another guess for the new minimum sum here:



Past years:
Using simple ratios to calculate the next minimum sum....

2010 (inflation rate: 2.8%)
Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2011:
123,000 * 112,000 / 108,000 * 1.028  = 131127
Actual minimum sum announced: 131000

2009 (inflation rate: 0.6%)
Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2010:
 117,000 * 108000 / 104000 * 1.006 = 122229
Actual minimum sum announced: 123000

2008 (inflation rate: 6.6%)

Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2010:
 106,000 * 104000/10000 * 1.066 = 117516
Actual minimum sum announced: 117000


It seems quite accurate at least for the past 3 years. I am a little lazy to work out more years here.
Using the same calculations,
Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2012:
131000 * 116000/112000 * 1.052 = 142733

Since CPF has the habit of rounding to the nearest thousand, I would think that the CPF minimum sum for 2012 is going to be $143,000.

We will know if I am correct when the CPF board announces the official figures in a few months time. =)

CPF minimum sum - What it means to you

About 2 weeks ago, I posted a projection of the CPF minimum sum for the next 30 years.
Related Post:  What if CPF minimum sum continues to increase at its current rate

Some readers may be still confused on how the minimum sum works. Some of the queries they have may include:
1) If my CPF OA + SA is more than 131k, does it mean that I can withdraw all balances above the 131k at the age of 55?
2) If I do not hit the minimum sum, can I withdraw anything?

I have extracted some of the examples provided on the CPF website
(Examples on computation of CPF withdrawal)

I will go through the examples in the reverse order as I feel it is easier to understand in this manner.

Example 4: CPF balances more than $145,556

In this example, the retiree (let's call him X) has
1) fulfilled his CPF minimum sum
2) fulfilled his medisave required amount

In this scenario, X will be able to withdraw all cash balances above his 131k OA+SA (250,000 - 131,000 = 119,000). You will fall into this category if your CPF balances are more than $145,556. But wait!! Isn't the CPF minimum sum $131,000. Where did this new number come from?

Extracted from CPF website:
For this group: More than $145,556
10% of $145,556 and any further cash balances after setting aside the CPF Minimum Sum (MS) of $131,000** (from July 2011 to June 2012) and the prevailing Medisave Required Amount ($32,000 for 2012)


My calculations:
10% of 145,556 (14556) + 131,000 = $145,556
The 131,000 only forms 90% of the $145,556. So "10% of $145,556 and any further cash balances after setting aside the CPF Minimum Sum (MS) of $131,000" can be read as "All balances above $131,000" if you belong to this category. Confusing isn't?

If you fall between the 131,000 to 145,556 region, you need to refer to example 2


Example 3: CPF balances more than $145,556, but medisave requirement not fulfiled

In this example, X has
1) fulfilled his CPF minimum sum but
2) did not fulfill his medisave required amount

In such a scenario, he will need to top up his medisave from his OA + SA 1st before withdrawing the balances. In the example above, we see that his medisave has a shortfall of 31k to achieve the required amount. This 31k needs to be topped up from his OA+SA. X ended up only withdrawing 88k.



Example 2: More than $50,000 but less than or equal to $145,556
Things start to get tricky from here.
In this example, X
1) did not fulfill his CPF minimum sum
2) did not fulfil his medisave required amount.

Does it means that he cannot withdraw anything? Not at all.
For this category, he can withdraw "10% of the cash balances. The remainder will be set aside in your RA.".
If you belong to this category, do take note of the following:
1) You do not need to top up to your Medisave account as you have not met the CPF minimum sum. (good news isn't? You can withdraw more now)
2) You can choose to pledge the remaining amount using your property.


In a scenario where X has 140k and has fulfilled the Medisave required amount, he will be able to withdraw 10% (i.e. 14k). This is slightly more than the 9k (140k - 131k) which I originally thought to be!



Example 1: More than $5,000 but less than or equal to $50,000
Like the earlier example, since X did not met his CPF minimum sum, he do not need to top up his Medisave account to hit the required sum. To put is simply, people who fall under this category will "withdraw $5,000. The remainder will be set aside in your Retirement Account (RA)."
In this example, after withdrawing 5k, X has 3k remaining. In addition to this, X chose to pledge his property (addtional 30k that was withdrawn for housing earlier)


What if your minimum sum is below $5,000 ?
In such a scenario, you will be able to withdraw all your cash balances. =)


Final Notes
I hope most of you will eventually end up in the scenario where you hit the CPF minimum sum and Medisave required amount. This will ensure that you can get a bigger payout from your CPF LIFE later on. But as I have mentioned before, it will be better to plan your retirement without taking CPF into consideration. We never know how the CPF withdraw rules or the CPF LIFE scheme may change over the next few years.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

First REIT: 4Q 2011 results

DPU for First REIT 4Q is 1.93c. This is inclusive of a 0.32c of capital gain from the sale of its Adam road property of about 8.7M. The distributions will be paid on the 29th Feb (like many other reits)


Prices has been quite flat for the past 2 weeks or so. Investors are probably waiting for the results to be released before deciding on the next course of action to take. If this resistance of 0.77 is overcome, the next resistance will be around 0.79-0.80. The immediate support now is around 0.76

Other Notes:
1) NAV is $0.805 now. Last done is $0.77
2) gearing of 16% is very low compared to its other REIT counterparts
3) A 7.01c dpu for the entire FY translates to a yield of 9.1% based on current price. If we exclude the one time capital gain of 0.32c, the yield is 8.68%. This makes it one of the top five in terms of yield for REITs. Most of these high yield REITs are industrial REITs.
4) first REIT also outperformed STI since it listed in 2006.

Presentations slides: First REIT 2011 4Q results

I would think that the current price is still quite attractive for its yield. The low gearing makes it easier for the REIT to expand its portfolio if it needed to. The downside to this REIT is currency risk. With properties in Indonesia and Korea, there is a risk of lower distributions resulting from our growing strength in Singapore dollar. However, such currency fluctuations may also turn in your favour.

If the prices dip further, I will consider topping up on my stake in First REIT. If it continues to rise, I will be enjoying the paper gain on it as well. =)

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Happy Chinese New Year to all

Happy Chinese New year to all! HUAT ah!!

One of the advantages for singles is the entitlement to receive ang pow (red packets) during the Chinese new year. One of the ang pows I received this year came as a pleasant surprise. Not because of the ang pow contents or the design on the ang pow. It was the "source" of the ang pow. We see ang pow from different sources: banks, insurance companies and other companies.

This is the back of the ang pow which I am talking about:

One of my relatives was shopping in one of my malls! Haha!

Sunday, January 22, 2012

SuntecReit: Divestment of Chijmes completed

The divestment of Chijmes has been completed.
See announcement here: COMPLETION OF THE DIVESTMENT OF CHIJMES

Chijmes was divested at $177M, which is 23.2% above valuation. In 4Q FY2011, Chijmes brought in 2.7M of revenue. This makes up about 4.5% of the total revenue of 60M. The proceeds of this disposal will also finance the upcoming asset enhancement of Suntec City.

The enhancement project will be conducted in 4 phases from mid 2012 to 2015. After the enhancement is completed, there will be an significant increase in the rent (estimated from a $10.10 psf pm to $12.59 psf pm). This is an increase if 25%
See announcement here: Remaking of Suntec City

During this period of time, we will observe a drop in income distribution for suntec reit due to
1) no more revenue for Chijmes
2) disrupted revenue during the asset enhancement.

As each of the phases complete, we will see a gradual increase in DPU. After the asset enhancement is fully completed, the DPU observed will be much better than what we observed today. I will be holding on to my SuntecREIT and observe again once the 4 phases kicks in.


Related posts:
SuntecReit: Excellent Q4 results

Friday, January 20, 2012

REITs payout summary in Feb/Mar 2012

As Feb draws nearer, many REIT investors like myself will get excited. Distributions from the REITs will start pouring into your bank account at the end of Feb.
I will be compiling some of the REITs payout details on this page. As I am lazy to track all of them, I will only be listing the ones I am more interested in. As other REITs release more their dividend information, this list be updated.

It seems that 29 Feb is dividend day. If it is not a leap year, we will be getting the distributions 1 day earlier.

** If you spot any errors in this listing, please leave me a comment. I will update them as soon as I can.

AIMS AMP INDUSTRIAL REIT
DPU
2.6c
Frequency
Quarterly
Ex-Date
3 Feb 2012
Payable Date
20 March 2012

Ascott Reit
DPU
4.063
Frequency
Half yearly
Ex-Date
31 Jan 2012
Payable Date
27 Feb 2012

CapitaComm
DPU
3.75c
Frequency
Half yearly
Ex-Date
27 Jan 2012
Payable Date
29 Feb 2012

FrasersCT
DPU
2.48c
Frequency
Quarterly
Ex-Date
27 Jan 2012
Payable Date
29 Feb 2012


Maple Industrial
DPU
2.16c
Frequency
Quarterly
Ex-Date
1 Feb 2012
Payable Date
29 Feb 2012


Maple Logistics
DPU
1.7c
Frequency
Quarterly
Ex-Date
31 Jan 2012
Payable Date
29 Feb 2012


Starhill REIT
DPU
1.01c
Frequency
Quarterly
Ex-Date
3 Feb 2012
Payable Date
29 Feb 2012


Suntec REIT
DPU
2.479c
Frequency
Quarterly
Ex-Date
31 Jan 2012
Payable Date
29 Feb 2012

AIMS Industrial REIT: 3Q results

AIMS industrial REIT results are out today. Investors were quite positive about the results, AIMS closed at $1.01 (up 1%) today.

A dividend of 2.6c per unit is declared for the period Oct - Dec 2011. Ex-date is 3 Feb 2012 and payable on 20 March 2012.
Even though there was a sale of the 31 Admiralty Road property, there was an increase in DPU. The property was also sold 8.9% above book value and 22.7% above the REIT's initial purchase price of 13.4M

Link to presentation slides



Some points to note:
1) Weighted average lease expiry of 2.6 months.
Actual breakdown: Next debt due: 138M at Oct 2013, followed by 28.8M at Feb 2014 and 111.5M at Oct 2015.

2) Redevelopment works at 20 Gul Way progressing according to schedule and within
budget

Once the redevelopment is complete, it is likely that we will see an increase in DPU.

3) High occupancy rate of 98.9%
Comparing to other occupancy rates:
  • a) factory space: 93%
  • b) Warehouse space: 93.6%
  • c) URA industrial space: 93.3%

4) average security deposit per property of approximately 8.4 months
This will give AIMS REIT ample time to find a new tenant in the event major tenants pull out.


5) Long land lease to expiry
The earliest expiry we see is 21-30 years time, which is only 10.9% of the net lettable area




Thursday, January 19, 2012

SuntecReit: Excellent Q4 results

Suntec Q4 results were released today after market closed. I felt that the results were quite good for a couple of reasons

1) Higher distributable income and distribution per unit (dpu) from FY10 to FY11
The distributable income increased from 182.5 mil to 220.7 mil (+20.9%)
The distribution per unit increase from 9.859 to 9.932 (+0.7%). This is also higher than the original forecast of 8.699c. When we invest in REITs, we will want them to have increasing distributable income through more acquisitions and asset enhancements. SuntecREIT is planning for the latter currently.


2) Higher DPU compared to previous year same quarter
4Q FY11 DPU
The next distribution for Suntec will be 2.479c
Ex date: 31 Jan
Payment date: 28 Feb

This is 7% higher than the DPU in 4Q 2010 (2.316c)

Other points to note:
Office Leases Expiring in FY 2012 Down to 10.1%
SuntecREIT forward renewed more than 233,000 sq ft of FY 2012 leases. This is an important move to ensure that high occupancy rate is maintained.

No major refinancing requirement till 2013
This will probably mean that we will not see another private placement or rights issue for SuntecREIT in FY2012

Debt to Asset Ratio Improved to 37.3% (as of 31 Dec 2011, it was 39.05%)
Lesser debt is always good. Isn't? =)


Other thoughts:
SuntecReit has been increasing for the past few days like many other SG stocks and reits. As the 4Q report is quite good, I would think that SuntecREIT will open in the green tomorrow. The next resistance we are looking at will be around 1.20


AIMS Industrial REIT: quarterly results out tomorrow

Aims industrial REIT has been on the rise for a while. It is quite interesting to see it closing at $1 today after rising by another 1.5c

My thoughts about AIMS currently:
1) Release of quarterly results tomorrow
It seems that investors are quite positive about the results tomorrow. A much higher traded volume is observed as compared to the past week. Perhaps AIMS has attracted some short term speculators that feel that AIMS quarterly results will be positive tomorrow.

2) $1 is a psychological point
Many people like round numbers. I heard people around me making statements like:
a) I will buy SIA if it reaches $10
b) I will sell Singtel if it reaches $3.50
and so on.
So how will aims behave after reaching $1.00? Its 52 week range is 0.93 to 1.13. Will it continue to climb further to break it's one year high? or will it get tired and slip back?


3) Technical analysis
Based on TA, both RSI and stochastics are in the region of the overbought region. I also noticed that today the 200 day moving average is crossed. If the bullish trend continues, the next resistance we might see is at 1.02. However, we may also observe a downward movement as many TA indicators are showing that is is currently overbought.


I would think that AIMS is still a good investment counter to consider. Its NAV is around 1.365 (based on reitdata.com). At $1, it is trading at a much lower price than its NAV. Its yield (~10%) remains the highest among locally listed REITs. This makes AIMS an attractive buy for dividend income.

Monday, January 16, 2012

What if CPF minimum sum continues to increase at its current rate

The CPF minimum sum has been increasing for the past 8-9 years. Back in Jul 2003, the minimum sum was 80k. In Jul 2011, it became 131k. This works out to be a 6.35% per annum. 

Extracted from CPF website:
So, what if the minimum sum continues to increase at this 6.35% per year for the next 30-40 years? 

Below is a projection of the CPF minimum sum based on this rate. Based on this projection, by Jul 2042 (30.5 years from now), we will be looking at a minimum sum of more than 880k !!

Year
Projected CPF minimum sum
Actual CPF minimum sum
2003
80,000.00
80,000.00
2004
85,080.00
84,500.00
2005
90,482.58
90,000.00
2006
96,228.22
94,600.00
2007
102,338.72
99,600.00
2008
108,837.22
106,000.00
2009
115,748.39
117,000.00
2010
123,098.41
123,000.00
2011
130,915.16
131,000.00
2012
139,228.27

2013
148,069.27

2014
157,471.67

2015
167,471.12

2016
178,105.53

2017
189,415.23

2018
201,443.10

2019
214,234.74

2020
227,838.64

2021
242,306.40

2022
257,692.86

2023
274,056.35

2024
291,458.93

2025
309,966.57

2026
329,649.45

2027
350,582.19

2028
372,844.16

2029
396,519.76

2030
421,698.77

2031
448,476.64

2032
476,954.91

2033
507,241.54

2034
539,451.38

2035
573,706.54

2036
610,136.91

2037
648,880.60

2038
690,084.52

2039
733,904.89

2040
780,507.85

2041
830,070.10

2042
882,779.55



The CPF board said that the minimum sum will be "raised gradually" until it reaches 120k (in 2003 dollars) in 2013. These amounts will be adjusted yearly for inflation. I suspect that the 6.35% increase per year we have observed was for both the target minimum sum of 120k (in 2003 dollars), along with the inflation. After 2013, the rate of increase should be lower as it is based on inflation only. 
The inflation rate in Singapore is about 2-3% per year. Using an inflation rate of 3% per year after 2013, the minimum sum projection will be something like this:

Year
Projected CPF minimum sum
 (based on 3% inflation only after 2013)
Actual CPF minimum sum
2003
80,000.00
80,000.00
2004
85,080.00
84,500.00
2005
90,482.58
90,000.00
2006
96,228.22
94,600.00
2007
102,338.72
99,600.00
2008
108,837.22
106,000.00
2009
115,748.39
117,000.00
2010
123,098.41
123,000.00
2011
130,915.16
131,000.00
2012
139,228.27

2013
148,069.27

2014
152,511.35

2015
157,086.69

2016
161,799.29

2017
166,653.27

2018
171,652.86

2019
176,802.45

2020
182,106.52

2021
187,569.72

2022
193,196.81

2023
198,992.71

2024
204,962.50

2025
211,111.37

2026
217,444.71

2027
223,968.05

2028
230,687.09

2029
237,607.71

2030
244,735.94

2031
252,078.02

2032
259,640.36

2033
267,429.57

2034
275,452.46

2035
283,716.03

2036
292,227.51

2037
300,994.34

2038
310,024.17

2039
319,324.89

2040
328,904.64

2041
338,771.78

2042
348,934.93



What should you do to ensure that you fulfill the minimum sum when you retire?
Different people have different needs. Young couples who are planning to purchase a new flat may find it difficult to attain the minimum sum with a 30 year loan to worry about. 

For people who have repaid their HDB loans fully, they may want to transfer some balances from their ordinary account (OA) to their special account (SA) to earn a higher interest rate. However, do note that this process is irreversible. Which is why this option should not be considered if you still have an outstanding HDB loan which can only be paid from your OA.

For people who will not be purchasing their HDB in the next few years may want to consider investing using their CPF-OA. The CPF OA interest rate is currently at 2.5%. Many local blue chips, preference shares or reits gives a yield of 5% or more, beating  the CPF-OA's interest easily.
One should assess his/her own situation and take into consideration of any plans for the next few years before deciding the course of action to take. 
Invest wisely. Plan Early. Retire Early. =)