## Saturday, January 28, 2012

### CPF minimum sum for Jul 2012 [predicted]

In one of my earlier posts, I projected the CPF minimum sum to be around 139k for Jul 2012.
Related post: What if CPF minimum sum continues to increase at its current rate

A few days ago, the inflation figures for 2011 were announced. For 2011, inflation averaged to be around 5.2% [http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1178968/1/.html]

In 2011, we have seen rising costs over many areas. With this released inflation figures, I would think the CPF minimum sum for July 2012 will be higher than what I had projected earlier. I would like to make another guess for the new minimum sum here:

Past years:
Using simple ratios to calculate the next minimum sum....

2010 (inflation rate: 2.8%)
Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2011:
123,000 * 112,000 / 108,000 * 1.028  = 131127
Actual minimum sum announced: 131000

2009 (inflation rate: 0.6%)
Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2010:
117,000 * 108000 / 104000 * 1.006 = 122229
Actual minimum sum announced: 123000

2008 (inflation rate: 6.6%)

Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2010:
106,000 * 104000/10000 * 1.066 = 117516
Actual minimum sum announced: 117000

It seems quite accurate at least for the past 3 years. I am a little lazy to work out more years here.
Using the same calculations,
Calculating CPF minimum sum for 2012:
131000 * 116000/112000 * 1.052 = 142733

Since CPF has the habit of rounding to the nearest thousand, I would think that the CPF minimum sum for 2012 is going to be \$143,000.

We will know if I am correct when the CPF board announces the official figures in a few months time. =)